Matvei Michkov has been a “savior” his whole life
The Flyers say Michkov isn’t their savior. Well, he most certainly was to HK Sochi in 2023-24.
I was reading the following article that got me thinking: How dominant was Matvei Michkov (a teenager) in the KHL last season, really?
If you know anything about his team, you know they were not very good. HK Sochi, the place where he has been loaned the past two seasons, is simply not good at all. They won 23 of their 68 games, which 19 of the other 22 teams in the league did better than.
So, Michkov’s minus-5 rating with his team doesn’t seem all that bad (as pointed out in the piece linked above). But just how good is that? Turns out, he was really good.
If you don’t understand relative (Rel) numbers, the gist is that they track your play relative to your team. If you are on the ice for three goals scored a game, your team average is two, but the league average is also three, you’re not an “average” player. In fact, you are very, very good.
Since Michkov’s team was very, very bad, here are his Rel numbers from last season that do him more justice. I track his relative goals per 60 minutes (GF/60 Rel), relative goals against per 60 minutes (GA/60 Rel), and relative goals percentage (GF% Rel), the latter being a glorified plus-minus. Compared to his team, here’s how he stacked up, all at even strength (EV):
Michkov’s 2023-24 numbers with Sochi (approximate):
+1.68 GF/60 Rel
+1.00 GA/60 Rel
+9.04 GF% Rel
There is likely a bit of error here since I calculated these on my own (and I’m not entirely familiar with how Rel stats are made to the exact degree). The method to my madness, in case you’re curious (skip to the next bolded section if you don’t care):
I took his EV GF (39) and multiplied that by 60, dividing it by his total EV ice time (668:11) to get 3.50 EV GF/60. I then took his EV GA (45) and multiplied that by 60, dividing it by his total EV ice time to get 4.04 EV GA/60. I took his total GF and divided that by his GF plus GA for a 46.4 GF%.
This is where I isolated Michkov’s impact. As a team, Sochi scored 122 goals in 5-on-5, 4-on-4, and 3-on-3 situations. They allowed 184 goals. They played 3409:05 of total EV ice time.
When subtracting Michkov’s numbers from this, you get 83 GF and 139 GA in 2740:54. Per 60 minutes, that’s a lowly 1.82 GF/60, 3.04 GA/60, and 37.4 GF%.
From there, I just subtracted Michkov’s totals from Sochi’s non-Michkov totals (3.50 GF/60 - 1.82 GF/60 = +1.68 GF/60, 4.04 GA/60 - 3.04 GA/60 = +1.00 GA/60, 46.4 GF% - 37.4 GF% = +9.04 GF%).
I did this method with Auston Matthews and underestimated his GF/60 Rel by 0.06, overestimated his GA/60 Rel by 0.04, and underestimated his GF% Rel by 0.98. So, based on that, these numbers are pretty close to accurate. I used the KHL’s website for the numbers.
How does that compare to NHLers today?
Of course, the KHL and NHL cannot be compared directly. But I’m going to anyway, just to put things into perspective. Plus, these are both (objectively) the two best leagues in the only two hockey-heavy continents in the world, so it’s not that far off.
Last season, there were only seven forwards with at least 500 minutes of even-strength ice time who put up >1.50 GF/60 Rel and >9.00 GF% Rel, just like Michkov:
Nathan MacKinnon (COL)
Zach Hyman (EDM)
Auston Matthews (TOR)
Joel Eriksson Ek (MIN)
Aleksander Barkov (FLA)
Sebastian Aho (CAR)
Robert Thomas (STL)
Just in case you were curious, here’s how the Flyers’ 500+ EV ice time leaders looked:
An in-his-prime Travis Konecny, coming off what I believe was his best season, is the only one who comes close.
Again, the KHL and NHL are obviously not directly comparable. And I might be off slightly with the numbers.
But the rate at which Michkov produced was elite. Oh, also, he had 3.09 points per 60. Adrian Kempe (LAK) was 30th in the NHL with that exact same number, but teams scored an average of 3.11 goals per game versus the 2.63 in the KHL. That’s precisely why Michkov was in the 96th percentile for points per game (among forwards with 10 games played)—41 points in 48 total games (47 with Sochi) is tremendous for that league.
I find it ironic how the Flyers’ management has continuously denied that Michkov isn’t their “savior” though it is obvious he’s their only chance at breaking this soul-crushing 49-year Stanley Cup drought. And a somehow more disheartening 14-year drought without making a Conference Final.
The reality? He was Sochi’s savior (and they were still terrible). He’s been the savior everywhere he has gone. He was a savior in international tournaments (when Russia still qualified). He was a savior in the MHL. He was a savior (although briefly) in the VHL. He was a savior in the KHL.
It’s time for him to be a savior in the NHL.