Stats, clips, and analysis: Jamie Drysdale’s resurgence
Drysdale (PHI9) is really turning a corner
Maybe you’ve noticed. Or maybe you haven’t.
But Jamie Drysdale is back.
Since being acquired last January, Drysdale has had a bumpy ride. Recurring injuries. New injuries. Learning a new system. Being a defenseman in his early 20s.
That’s not to absolve him of anything, but it’s important context. Before returning from another injury on December 8th, he was being outscored 32-10 as a Flyer at 5v5 (per Natural Stat Trick).
Look at him now:
Jamie Drysdale is… an on-ice asset?
Despite putrid goaltending, Drysdale was on the ice for more goals than he allowed in December at 5v5.
Among defensemen with 100+ TOI, his on-ice save percentage (.850) was in the 3rd percentile. Flyers who joined him in the bottom 20 were Ristolainen, Sanheim, and Zamula.
To have a positive 5v5 goal share with that kind of goaltending at all, much less 56%, is a true anomaly.
Drysdale was being assessed minuses for goals like this:
And don’t forget about this:
This is not putting blame solely on the Flyers’ goalies. Drysdale isn’t perfect, you know. He makes mistakes in the DZ. Plenty of them, in fact. Still, he’s a 22-year-old kid who has faced setback after setback.
…And he’s also winning his minutes.
I’m not going to ooh and aah at plus/minus over here, but it is notable. It is a step in the right direction. Especially after a single-digit percentile literally every month before. It’s progress. Significant progress. Like, “Is this even the same dude? What’s Brad Shaw feeding him?” progress.
Generating 5v5 offense at a level surpassed by only Rasmus Dahlin
Ah, so this is why he had a positive goal share at 5v5. He thinks he’s in Erie again.
I mean, just look at the top 8 defensemen in xGF/60 (with their contract cap hits in parenthesis; per Evolving-Hockey):
Rasmus Dahlin ($11m) → 3.83
Jamie Drysdale ($2.3m) → 3.70
Luke Hughes ($925k; ELC) → 3.67
Thomas Chabot ($8m) → 3.60
Thomas Harley ($4m) → 3.49
Josh Morrissey ($6.25m) → 3.48
Noah Hanifin ($7.35m) → 3.46
Roman Josi ($9.06m) → 3.41
Drysdale is providing offense. And it’s really for the first time since he’s been in Philly. The Flyers are a much bigger threat to score while Jamie’s out there - point, blank, period.
Sometimes it’s more subtle than a clapper from the point, but he’s doing offensive things (pinch)
Perhaps not a Herculean task, but Drysdale helping drive offense in back-to-back sequences
Jamie has 6 points in 16 games since returning from his latest injury. Far from elite.
But the process is there. He doesn’t have to dart up the ice every shift and dangle 2 guys for his offensive game to be a big positive.
Expected goal share as a whole: very good
Again, you can’t score more than your opponent at 5v5 with 3rd-percentile goaltending unless you either have 99th-percentile shooting luck or, like Drysdale, have a ridiculous expected goal share.
As pointed out in yesterday’s TLY podcast (episode #114; check it out, it’s worth a listen if you’re Flyers obsessed like I am!), Drysdale-Michkov has been a duo used more and more at 5v5. It’s accounting for a large chunk of these results.
Drysdale is that dude regardless. Still, this is a marriage we need to see a lot of.
It’s not just for Jamie’s sake:
You ever seen Makar’s numbers without MacKinnon (and vice versa)? Like, two of the best players in the league?
This has been an ongoing theme for them (5v5):
I’m not comparing Michkov to MacKinnon and Drysdale to Makar, but the thought here is that your two premier offensive threats at each position (at least, they project to be) work best together.
These kids are 20 and 22 respectively. They have years to feed off each other. But this seems like a path to excellence… no?
Let this relationship marinate over several years. See what comes of it. Drysdale might be the guy who activates Michkov the best.
Vastly increased zone time (even strength; via NHL Edge):
81st percentile OZ (43.7%)
Below 50th percentile NZ (17.7%)
68th percentile DZ (38.6%)
For Drysdale, this is a complete in-season turnaround. I don’t believe I can track NHL Edge stats by date, but I did have the foresight to track his numbers pre-December.
He was getting caved hard. Drysdale spent 43.7% of his EV ice time in the D-zone.
That, as opposed to just 38.6%? It’s been all O-zone stuff for him.
Flyers’ team averages:
Below 50th percentile OZ (41.6%)
70th percentile NZ (18.7%)
58th percentile DZ (39.7%)
The Flyers themselves still don’t look that great. Improved since about October, but not great.
Drysdale has increased his OZ time from last season (42.7%; 60th percentile - Flyers only) despite this year’s brutal start. And that’s with a slightly lower rate of starts and faceoffs in the DZ, though I’m not sure how much that matters.
Zone starts
Faceoffs
Focusing on the power play
Drysdale’s power-play goal last night highlights something that has been ignored by most.
From the time he made his NHL debut through yesterday (Jan. 11), he ranked highly among the best defensemen with 100+ PP TOI.
Relative to his teammates, he generated +3.96 goals per 60 minutes. That’s 10th.
The list in question (per Natural Stat Trick):
Mikhail Sergachev ($8.5m) → +8.62
Quinn Hughes ($7.85m) → +7.20
Adam Fox ($9.5m) → +5.17
Roman Josi ($9.06m) → +5.08
Cale Makar ($9m) → +5.07
Rasmus Dahlin ($11m) → +4.89
Evan Bouchard ($3.9m) → +4.67
Lane Hutson ($950k; ELC) → +4.60
Zach Werenski ($9.58m) → +4.60
Jamie Drysdale ($2.3m) → +3.96
The 56-player list of 100+ PP TOI D-men is filled with a lot of top defensemen. But the names Drysdale is up here with is impressive.
Aside from Bouchard (holds the record for single-season playoff assists; 26) and Hutson (is putting up Hughes/Makar rookie-year numbers), everyone here is making big bucks. Bouchard and Hutson will get a bag when their deals expire, too.
Again, these are actual goals. But what about expected goals?
Defensemen with 2+ actual goals/60 and 2+ expected goals/60 (relative):
Quinn Hughes ($7.85m) → +7.20 G / +5.25 xG
Adam Fox ($9.5m) → +5.17 G / +4.01 xG
Roman Josi ($9.06m) → +5.08 G / +3.12 xG
Cale Makar ($9m) → +5.07 G / +2.36 xG
Evan Bouchard ($3.9m) → +4.67 G / +3.92 xG
Jamie Drysdale ($2.3m) → +3.96 G / +2.16 xG
Dougie Hamilton ($9m) → +2.77 G / +5.86 xG
Sean Durzi ($6m) → +2.53 G / +2.47 xG
John Carlson ($8m) → +2.19 G / +5.18 xG
It’s been a process with Jamie. But there’s been incredible growth from even just 2 months ago.
Going into his 5th NHL season and his 2nd with the Flyers, albeit with a ton of missed time, there were real worries. Drysdale was a full-fledged liability.
But now? He’s actually helping the team put a better product on the ice. He’s no longer “The guy who skates fast.”
Perhaps, this is just the beginning.
All clips courtesy of the Philadelphia Flyers and the NHL